After three weeks of picking mostly visitors (and only one of those weeks did I consider myself successful), I know have a week where I picked mostly home teams. Strangely, I'm suspicious of this week. The picks were entirely too easy; few of them took any time to research, as the pick was obvious. The league isn't that one-sided anymore; it's not college football, where some teams are just not at the same level of others. Upsets may be happening this week.
Denver fell from the ranks of the unbeatens, leaving just Kansas City. Two teams remain winless, as the Giants won their first game. Tampa Bay is hoping to gain that on Thursday, but I doubt it. Jacksonville is so pathetic, it would take a contest against a pathetic team to gain that victory. Perhaps when they host the Texans on Dec 5th, depending upon the health of Matt Schaub.
Top Ten teams [Last week's position]
1. Kansas City Chiefs (7-0) [1] : The only unbeaten team and the owners of the best defense in the league; that's deserving of the top spot.
2. Denver Broncos (6-1) [2] : They have lost, and their defense still looks a bit sloppy, but this team still has talent, and they still have Peyton Manning. Despite attempting to rattle him, Manning still had a great night, even against a defense who knew how he plays. Against anyone else, and the Broncos still excel.
3. Seattle Seahawks (6-1) [4] : This team has all of the elements on both offense and defense to make a strong run for the Super Bowl. They are the best team in the NFC, and have been for most of this season. They let Arizona do a bit more this week than they should have, but the offense still dominated.
4. New Orleans Saints (5-1) [3] : They took a bye, so they didn't do anything this week. They have a chance to leap over Seattle when the Seahawks take their bye.
5. Indianapolis Colts (5-2) [6] : They beat Denver, but this team is still too inconsistent to believe in yet. Their defense knew how Peyton Manning plays, and their Luck-led offense was more determined this week. Until they show that same level of determination each week, this team has holes.
6. Green Bay Packers (4-2) [9] : This team is definitely erasing the stigma of their two early losses. The loss of Jermichael Finley hurts their offense, though, so we're not sure how strong they will continue to be.
7. San Francisco 49ers (5-2) [7] : They're getting comfortable in the Number Seven slot. They had a fairly easy opponent this week, and now face Jacksonville. How will they do when tougher competition comes along?
8. Carolina Panthers (3-3) [17] : What a leap for the Panthers! A royal pasting of a decent Rams team, as well as some poor performances of the teams now below them, vaults the team into the Top Ten for the first time all season. Really, the Panthers haven't been bad this season, and most of their losses have been really close. Granted, their two previous victories were against weak teams (Minnesota and the Giants), but the Giants big Monday Night win helped.
9. Dallas Cowboys (4-3) [12] : Another team buoyed by a strong win this week, their defense shut down the fast-paced Eagles offense, preventing them from scoring a touchdown and keeping their ground game, which had been working so well for Philly, to a minimum.
10. New England Patriots (5-2) [5] : We won't call it an ugly, and Gronk played okay, but the Patriots looked a bit out of sorts this week. We do know they bounce back well.
Divisional ranks [Last week's position]
1. AFC West [1] : San Diego had the benefit of playing Jacksonville, but this division is so much higher than the Number Two, I'm not sure they will fall from this perch all season. Denver and KC lead the league, and San Diego is good. Oakland needs to improve, but the division can still thrive with only three good teams.
2. NFC South [6] : Whoa, where did THIS meteoric rise come from? Strong performances from Atlanta and Carolina, that's where. Tampa still drags this division down, but the rest look good. Troubles with Number Three means this division could stay here for a while.
3. NFC North [3] : Green Bay is strong, but the loss of Jermichael Finley is yet to be felt. The Bears defense is collapsing, and the loss of Jay Cutler will hurt (although Josh McCown played surprisingly well in relief). Minnesota continues to struggle, so the success of this division may hinge on Detroit.
4. NFC West [2] : The Rams and Cardinals were both blasted this week, dropping the division. They should be able regain the Number Two spot in a couple of weeks if even one of those teams improves.
5. AFC East [4] : They beat up on each other this week, and the two lower teams beat the two upper teams, which shook up the division a bit.
6. AFC North [5] : Cincy won, and Pittsburgh gained their second victory. Unfortunately that victory came at the expense of the Ravens, knocking down the division. Cincy is now the only winning team in the division.
7. AFC South [7] : Indy is the only winning team, and the others are looking sickly. Tennessee, who has looked good at various times this season, seems to be falling down, and that leaves the Colts alone to hold up the division.
8. NFC East [8] : It's looking more and more likely that 9-7, or even 8-8, will win this division. Philly's great offense seems stagnant and Washington has no defense to speak of. The Giants finally won a game, but it was against an offensively-challenged (and QB-confused) Vikings team.
Thursday night
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Bucs : Carolina gets to celebrate their first week in the Top Ten by facing a winless team. All hail the scheduling gods! While Tampa is gearing up for a possible victory, I don't think they'll get it. Their offense still needs help. Mike Glennon is not the savior they thought when they released Josh Freeman (who, admittedly, did not help Minnesota on Monday Night), and they have no running game to speak of. The defense, normally a good part of the Bucs, has been too inconsistent. With a short week to prepare for this game, I think Carolina has the advantage. PANTHERS, 23-13
Sunday early games
Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints : Did the Saints really need a bye leading into this game? The Bills come off a win over Miami, but their defense isn't strong enough to hold back the Saints. Since the Saints defense is working this year under Rob Ryan, this one won't be close. SAINTS, 30-16
Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs : The Browns have to travel to KC to face the best defense in the league. That's definitely not a good situation for them. KC's offense has been up and down, and the Browns defense is good enough to hold it down, but this still won't be pretty for Cleveland. CHIEFS, 23-13
Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions : This is one of the few games that took some thought. Detroit was the easy initial pick, but Dallas has been playing well recently. Romo and company rely heavily on momentum, and they have that right now. That could carry them over the Lions, but I'll just let the momentum get them close. LIONS, 24-23
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots : These are often offensive shootouts, but I don't see that from either team this year. Defense runs both teams this year, so don't expect scoreboard-lighting results. I think the Patriots have the better defense, and hence the better chance in this game. PATRIOTS, 23-20
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles : The Giants won their first game last week, and Philly's offense was non-existent. Many sports analysts here in the New York area where I live are saying the Giants are ripe for a run, and see a second victory this week. It's possible, and I'm thinking that the Giants COULD pull it out, but I'm still picking the Eagles. Why? That offensive collapse last week may have been an aberration, and the Giants have not proven that they can prevent self-destruction. For crying out loud, they played a team whose only victory came away from American soil! And a team in more offensive disarray than the Giants themselves. EAGLES, 26-23
San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars : It's the Jaguars. Nuff said. 49ERS, 27-10
Sunday late games
Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals : Hmm, this is an interesting game. This was the first one to require some real thought. The Cardinals can harrass teams, and the Falcons have collapsed when harrassed this season. On the other hand, it appears that Matty Ice might be coming back to form, and that makes him dangerous. We'll see if the Falcons can continue to improve. FALCONS, 27-23
New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals : The Bengals have pulled off some amazing (and amazingly close) games this season against capable opponents. This looks to be another in that string. BENGALS, 23-17
Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders : Pittsburgh has won their last two games and seem to be on a roll. The Raiders had a bye week to prepare for this game. This was other game that took me time to determine how to pick. In the end, I went with the fact that Oakland tends to play well the week after their bye, but it would not surprise me if Pittsburgh continues that winning streak. RAIDERS, 19-16
Washington Redskins at Denver Broncos : Denver's defense is weak, so the Redskins will get to score. However, as they proved against the Bears, the Redskins defense isn't much better, so Peyton and the Broncos will score too. They'll likely score more than Washington in this offensive extravaganza. BRONCOS, 41-35
Sunday night
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings : The Vikings play two night games in a row, but they may want to avoid them. They don't tend to do well at night, and they have to host the Pack. The only question is how well the Packers offense will play, with the loss of Jermichael Finley? Fortunately for the Pack, the Vikings offense is in chaos right now, so they'll still win. PACKERS, 23-16
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Seattle Seahawks at St Louis Rams : The Rams face this game without Sam Bradford, and facing one of the stiffest defenses. That makes things too difficult for them. SEAHAWKS, 27-13
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