Sunday, October 27, 2013

NCAA 2013 Wek 10 picks

The upsets continued this week, and I don't just mean the losses to previously unbeaten Texas Tech and Missouri, both of which I had tagged as likely.  I mean the real surprise upsets, like Minnesota clobbering Nebraska, Navy capsizing Pittsburgh, North Carolina crushing Boston College, and San Jose State toppling Wyoming in an offensive shootout.  Duke became bowl eligible for the second consecutive year by defeating Virginia Tech.  If they win again, or are chosen for a bowl with a 6-6 record, it would mark the first time in school history that Duke has played in consecutive bowl games.

Lots of top teams have bye weeks this week, but there are still some exciting games on the schedule.

Wed Oct 30
Cincinnati Bearcats at Memphis Tigers : Cincy should have the upper hand in this game.  Memphis hasn't won a single American Athletic Conference game, and their only win this year was over Arkansas State.  CINCINNATI by 20

Thurs Oct 31
Strap yourselves in, it's a busy double-header Halloween!

South Florida Bulls at Houston Cougars : The Bulls lost every non-conference game this season, but they've improved since conference play started.  Houston, however, is unbeaten in conference play and tied with UCF for the conference lead.  The Cougars are a strong team who have mangled most of their opponents this season, and I see no reason that the Bulls shouldn't be next.  HOUSTON by 17

Rice Owls at North Texas Mean Green : Rice is tied for the lead in the West division of Conference USA, but North Texas is only a game back.  This game could propel the Mean Green into title contention, if someone can help them by beating Tulane.  North Texas has a strong team, but so does Rice.  This will be a close game.  Rice prefers to run the ball, and the Green have a tough rush defense.  I find that defense often trumps offense, especially with the home crowd behind them, so I'm picking the Mean Green upset.  NORTH TEXAS by three

#17 Arizona State Sun Devils at Washington State Cougars : No upset here, as the Sun Devils should burn the Cougars.  Both teams love to score, so there will be plenty of highlights, but the Sun Devils have a quicker strike and a stronger defense.  ARIZONA STATE by 13

Fri Nov 1
USC Trojans at Oregon State Beavers : The Beavers nearly came back against Stanford.  They can be devastating at home, and often knock off a couple of conference opponents there that they would lose on the road.  This is one such game.  The Beavers are opportunistic, and the Trojans are a bit clumsy and error-prone this season.  OREGON STATE by eight

Top 25
#4 Ohio State Buckeyes at Purdue Boilermakers : This is almost like a bye week for the Buckeyes, who should easily roll over the worst team in the conference.  OHIO STATE by 33

Tennessee Volunteers at #10 Missouri Tigers : Mizzou will be looking to demolish their next opponent after their close loss against South Carolina.  You know they will protect any lead going into the fourth quarter.  MISSOURI by 20

#11 Michigan Wolverines at #21 Michigan State Spartans : Connor Cook showed poise and leadership in the rout over Illinois; he definitely grew up after the Purdue game.  Combine that with the strongest offense in the country, and I don't think that even an extra week to prepare will allow Michigan to win this game.  MICHIGAN STATE in the upset by six

#13 Clemson Tigers at Virginia Cavaliers : The Cavs aren't much of a threat, so Clemson gets a chance to really roll.  Statistically, it might be the offense's best game all season, as the defense was more in charge in their win over Georgia.  CLEMSON by 24

#14 Wisconsin Badgers at Iowa Hawkeyes : Iowa is tough, but the Badgers have a grueling double-threat ground attack that wears down opposing defenses.  Iowa might keep it close in the first half, but Wisconsin will pull away starting late in the third quarter.  WISCONSIN by 13

UTEP Miners at #15 Texas A&M Aggies : A little non-conference breeze game for Johnny Manziel and the Aggies.  Expect a 500+ yard passing performance and over fifty points scored by the Aggies.  TEXAS A&M by 31

Colorado Buffaloes at #16 UCLA Bruins : UCLA has lost their last two games, and you know they don't want to lose a third!  They will clobber the Buffaloes as Brent Hunley tries to climb back into Heisman contention.  UCLA by 24

Mississippi State Bulldogs at #18 South Carolina Gamecocks : The Gamecocks won last week thanks to an amazing comeback engineered by Connor Shaw.  With his successful return from injury, the Bulldogs have a bigger challenge to face, one I don't think they can overcome.  SOUTH CAROLINA by 18

#20 Northern Illinois Huskies at UMass Minutemen : There is no question that the Huskies will win this game.  The only question is how many different ways will QB Jordan Lynch find to score?  NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 36

#23 Oklahoma State Cowboys at #22 Texas Tech Red Raiders : Whoa, this should be an exciting and offensively filled game!  Both teams have strong offenses and lack punch on defense.  This game could reach 100 points, but in the end I think Tech will win.  They tend to win these offensive battles, it's strong opposing defenses that hurt Tech.  TEXAS TECH by six

Nevada Wolf Pack at #24 Fresno State Bulldogs : Nevada is not the same threat they have been recently in the Mountain West.  After the close call this week, Fresno State will establish an early lead and keep it.  FRESNO STATE by 18

#25 Auburn Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks : Arkansas is looking for their first SEC win of the season.  Keep looking, guys!  AUBURN by 24

Big Ten
Illinois Fighting Illini at Penn State Nittany Lions : Both of these teams were blown out last week and have incentive to win this week.  Illinois tends to play poorly on the road, but they also tend to follow a poor offensive showing with a better one.  Penn State got banged up against Ohio State, and I think that may be all Illinois needs to capture their first Big Ten victory since 2010.  ILLINOIS in an upset by six

Northwestern Wildcats at Nebraska Cornhuskers : The Wildcats had a bye last week, and they needed it.  Their team had been going down the tubes since Big Ten play started.  I'd give the edge, except all of the heat Bo Pelini is catching for the loss will inspire him to devise a devastating game plan.  NEBRASKA by four in a squeaker.

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Indiana Hoosiers : Indiana can play tough, but they can't finish games.  The Gophers may trail at the half, but they will pour it on in the second half.  MINNESOTA by 16

Other Games of Interest
Georgia Bulldogs at Florida Gators : This is an intriguing battle.  Both teams had a bye week to prepare, and both need to heal.  Georgia's offense is more banged up, and I don't know how many of their tools will return.  At this point, it looks like Florida will have a slightly more healthy squad, with some key players back, so I'll pick them.  However, if Georgia heals more than expected, they could roar back.  FLORIDA by four

Navy Midshipmen at Notre Dame Fighting Irish : The Irish had their most impressive victory of the season last week, and expect that to continue.  The normally potent ground game by Navy has slowed, which should allow the Irish the chance to overpower and outscore them.  NOTRE DAME by 16

Kansas Jayhawks at Texas Longhorns : Texas remains unbeaten in Big XII play, while Kansas is winless in conference play.  Nope, no upset projected here.  TEXAS by 32

East Carolina Pirates at Florida International Golden Panthers : The Panthers have not enjoyed their step up from Sun Belt play this season, struggling in the more powerful Conference USA.  The Pirates defense struggled earlier in the season, but now they are knocking around opponents.  EAST CAROLINA by 20

Pittsburgh Panthers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets : A different Panthers team, similar result.  While Pitt is doing better in their second year in the ACC, they know all about the difficulties of moving to a new conference.  Tech's defense has also improved after a slow start, so Pitt will struggle to move the ball.  GEORGIA TECH by 18

GAME OF THE WEEK : #8 Miami Hurricanes at #3 Florida State Seminoles : The final showdown of unbeaten teams we will have in the regular season, as the ACC is the ONLY conference with two unbeaten teams.  Miami has barely won in a couple of games, while Florida State has rolled.  The only chance that Miami has is to hold Florida State in the first half.  The Seminoles love to score early and hold leads.  Miami's defense is good, but not good enough to stop Jameis Wilson and the Seminoles powerful offense.  The Seminoles will lead after the first quarter and never look back.  FLORIDA STATE by 18

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