It's a strange year. In a league that has shown great parity in recent years, there is a large gap between the Top Ten teams and the rest of the league. Even the divisions illustrate this. The NFC East has no teams with winning records and the NFC North has three. Three other divisions have just two, while the remaining three divisions have just ONE team with a winning record.
Top Ten teams [Last week's position]
1. Denver Broncos (7-1) [2] : They spotted Washington 21 points, then shut them down while they scored 35. The defense came alive in the second half, which may be an indication of things to come.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (8-0) [1] : A close win against a weak opponent doesn't help their ranking, but they remain the only unbeaten team in the league, and still have the stiffest defense.
3. New Orleans Saints (6-1) [4] : The offense rolled in a massacre of Buffalo. The defense showed some cracks, but they didn't break.
4. Seattle Seahawks (7-1) [3] : What an ugly victory! They needed a goal line stand to beat St Louis, and their offense made WAAY too many mistakes. They did not look like a Top Ten for 59 minutes.
5. San Francisco 49ers (6-2) [7] : Nice game, but they were playing the Jaguars, after all.
6. Green Bay Packers (5-2) [6] : The Packers have done nothing but improve since their tough opening games, and they find ways to win despite some key injuries.
7. Carolina Panthers (4-3) [8] : The Panthers have a winning record for the first time since Cam Newton's arrival, but it's the defense that's getting them there, and landing them in the Top Ten. The Panthers have one of the toughest defenses in the league.
8. Indianapolis Colts (5-2) [5] : They slid in their bye week, showing how weak their hold on the Top Five was.
9. Cincinnati Bengals (6-2) [13] : They had gone on a quiet tear, winning two games, before demolishing the Jets. The Bengals hold a two and a half game lead in the AFC North, the largest lead in any division.
10. New England Patriots (6-2) [10] : It wasn't a pretty win, but the Pats still find ways to win.
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. AFC West [1] : The way Denver and KC keep playing, this division is likely to stay on top all season. They now have the largest gap between them and the second place division that they've had all season.
2. NFC West [2] : The Rams nearly won, and every one did win. Despite a poor performance by Seattle, they played that poorly in a divisional game, so it didn't negatively affect their position. This division also has the second best overall record (behind the AFC West), and only has one team with a losing record, the 3-5 Rams. By the way, that is the second-best record for a last place team, trailing Oakland's 3-4 by half a game.
3. NFC South [2] : Impressive wins by the Saints and Carolina, but Tampa Bay and Atlanta still look sick.
4. NFC North [3] : Green Bay rolled, but there were some positive things shown by Minnesota in that game. Detroit pulled off a last-second miracle surprise quarterback leap to remain one of the most exciting teams to watch, as anything can happen.
5. AFC North [6] : Cincy rolled, but the other teams weren't bad in losses. Pittsburgh nearly staged a comeback against Oakland, and Cleveland kept it close against KC.
6. AFC East [5] : This drop was fueled mostly by the Jets' massive meltdown. Cincy scored 49 points, but it easily could have been more. Buffalo scored a bit against New Orleans, but couldn't hold back that offense.
7. AFC South [7] : Only Jacksonville played this week. They're lucky they didn't drop to eighth place.
8. NFC East [8] : The Giants were the only winners in an offensively-challenged game. Dallas should have won -- where was the goal line defense? Washington took a first half lead, but their offense evaporated in the second half.
The picks were suspiciously easy this week. I'm always worried when they are that easy, like I'm overlooking something. Only two games seem likely for upsets, and I am picking one upset.
Thursday night
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins : Miami started the season strong, while Cincy floundered. Now their fates are the reverse -- Cincy having good (sometimes great) games while Miami struggles. Those struggles are likely to continue. The offense has been getting more attention, but the Bengals still have a strong defense; after all, that's the staple of the AFC North. That defense will frustrate Ryan Tannehill. BENGALS, 27-16
Sunday early games
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers : Atlanta's offense is sputtering, and now they have to face one of the toughest defenses in the league. This game has all the earmarks of a disaster for the Falcons. PANTHERS, 23-13
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills : Thad Lewis has played well while EJ Manuel is out with injury, but the bigger concern is the health of C.J. Spiller. His absence makes the Bills offense one-dimensional -- not a good situation when you face the toughest defense in the league. CHIEFS, 27-16
Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys : Josh Freeman and Adrian Peterson had some moments in the Green Bay game, but overall the Vikings still lack offensive punch. Since their defense sucks, they need that offensive punch in order to win. I don't see it coming together yet. COWBOYS, 30-20
New Orleans Saints at New York Jets : The Saints, however, do have that offensive punch. The Jets defense will tighten after their atrocious performance against the Bengals, but the Saints are still likely to light up the scoreboard. SAINTS, 35-17
San Diego Chargers at Washington Redskins : The Chargers had an extra week to rest and prepare for this game. They have a better record and better margin of victory than Washington. So picking this game is easy, right? Well.... Here's my upset pick of the week. RGIII is looking good; I'm not sure that leg is showing any problems anymore. The offense moved well last week. Granted, they were playing against a weak Broncos defense, but they showed flair. The defense fell apart in the second half, but I think Washington will buckle down in this one. San Diego will engineer a comeback, but I suspect it will fall just short. REDSKINS, 24-23
Tennessee Titans at St Louis Rams : This will be another close game, but I have to favor the Titans on this one. Kellen Clemens has played well in Sam Bradford's absence, but he still hasn't quite clicked with the offense. The Rams were helped last week by five major errors by the Seattle offense; you can't count on that every week. Besides, the Rams defense stinks, while the Titans offense moves well with Jake Locker under center. Rams coach Jeff Fisher may think he knows this squad, after coaching them for 16 seasons, but this is a different team than the one he led. It'll be close, but I like the Titans to win this one. TITANS, 20-16
Sunday late games
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns : In the entire history of the Ravens v Browns (or, as some still call it, Old Browns v New Browns), the Ravens have always won. It seems to be a historical fact cast in stone. Led by a staunch defense and potent ground attack, the Ravens have always controlled the clock and the pace of the game. Now enter 2013: The Ravens are defending Super Bowl Champs, but not playing like that. That vaulted defense lost key players in the off-season, and Ray Rice is not delivering on the ground as reliably as we've seen. The offense makes mistakes, and they have seemed out of rhythm. The Browns, after losing their first two games, shed Trent Richardson in a trade that shocked everyone. They then proceeded to win three consecutive games, including an upset of Cincinnati, which also shocked everyone. Although they have lost their last three to powerful opponents, they have played well in each of those. Now they get to host the struggling Ravens, who barely beat them 14-6 earlier this season. History says the Ravens will win, and coming off a bye the Ravens are in better shape. However, this game could go Cleveland's way. I'll pick Baltimore, just because they are usually strong after their bye, but watch out for the historic upset. RAVENS, 23-21
Philadelphia Eagles at Oakland Raiders : After starting the season with amazing offensive performances, the game plan of Chip Kelly has fizzled. Opposing defenses have figured out how to stop it, and now the Eagles are struggling to score points. Matt Barkley could not run this offense, and Michael Vick now seems unsure of himself. Nick Foles seems ready to return, so the Eagles get a boost. However, tough defenses still frustrate this offense, and they don't come from behind well. The Raiders defense will give them fits early, and then the Eagles will force plays in order to try to come back. RAIDERS, 20-13
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots : No matter who else takes the field, so long as Tom Brady is under center, this offense finds ways to work. A strong defense has been helping them out this year, and that strong defense will make it tough for a Steelers team who offense has been unsteady. PATS, 21-17
Tampa Bay Bucs at Seattle Seahawks : You just know that the offense will bounce back from their self-destruction on Monday night. Fortunately, they get one of the most pathetic offenses to come to town, so this game will be a breeze even if the offense makes some mistakes. SEAHAWKS, 23-13
Sunday night
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans : Both teams come off a bye, so there is no advantage there. The difference will be the struggling Texans offense against a tough Colts defense. The Texans might suffer yet another pick-six, while Andrew Luck throws for over 300 yards against a weak Texans secondary. COLTS, 27-17
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers : I'd love to pick my Bears, but they play TERRIBLY on Monday Night Football. The offense is rolling, but the defense will allow the Pack too much. PACKERS, 30-20
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