NCAA 2013 Week 9 picks

Last week had its share of upsets, but that only the prelude to this week.  Four more unbeaten teams fell, and several one-loss teams lost.  Many Top 25 teams faced stiff challenges from non-ranked or lower-ranked teams.  Many teams were lucky to survive.

Some of the upsets were not big surprises to me.  I projected possible, and even likely, upsets to Louisville, UCLA, and Texas A&M.  While I didn't publish it, I also picked the LSU game as a possible upset.  I was as surprised as everyone, though, by Vandy's defeat of Georgia and Tennessee's upset of South Carolina.  I had thought Arizona State might play Washington close, so wiping them out was a big surprise.  I was also surprised by Florida State's manhandling of Clemson.

Some non-Top 25 upsets that surprised me:  Temple over Army, Colorado State over Wyoming, and Wake Forest over Maryland.  I'm beginning to think that 63-0 shocker was a turnaround, and Maryland will plummet like a stone now.  That's their historical pattern:  a great beginning to the season, a tough conference loss, and then a collapse.  Let's see if history continues.

Tues Oct 22
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns at Arkansas State Red Wolves : This may be the game to determine the Sun Belt champion.  The winner will certainly take sole position of first place and essentially a two-game lead over the other (as they would hold tiebreaker status).  Arkansas State is more used to these types of games, as they have led or contended for the Sun Belt lead most years.  However, the Ragin Cajuns have played well this season, so I'm picking them.  LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE by ten

Thurs Oct 24
Kentucky Wildcats at Mississippi State Bulldogs : Kentucky has played well in many games, but they can't sustain it.  Until they can close a game, I'm not going to believe they can win.  MISSISSIPPI STATE by 16

Fri Oct 25
Boise State Broncos at BYU Cougars : These two are fairly evenly matched.  This one could really go both ways.  Given that, I'll give a slight nod to the effect of a home crowd.  BYU by two

Top 25
Tennessee Volunteers at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide : The Vols are high after knocking off South Carolina, but now they have to face the tough Tide.  Even if the Vols take an early lead, as Alabama has a tendency to start slowly, that lead will evaporate quickly.  ALABAMA by 24

#12 UCLA Bruins at #2 Oregon Ducks : UCLA wants to bounce back from their loss to Stanford, but they switch from facing a stifling defense to facing an overpowering offense.  Different game plan, but I think the result will be the same.  OREGON by 23

NC State Wolfpack at #3 Florida State Seminoles : This is a great easy game to connect their demolition of Clemson and facing Miami.  FLORIDA STATE by 34

Penn State Nittany Lions at #4 Ohio State Buckeyes : Penn State had an extra week to prepare for this, but it's hard to prepare for Ohio State.  Even if you stop part of their game, they shift to another focus by the second half.  As such, I don't think Penn State has the ability to adjust well enough to overcome Ohio State.  OHIO STATE by 16

#5 Baylor Bears at Kansas Jayhawks : While I don't think Baylor will have another 64-point victory, this game will be a breeze.  BAYLOR by lots

#6 Louisville Cardinals at South Florida Bulls : South Florida is the ultimate Jekyll/Hyde team this year.  They lost every non-conference game, but has currently won every American Athletic Conference game they have played.  I think that streak will end, though, as Louisville needs a good victory to redeem themselves after the loss to UCF.  LOUISVILLE by 17

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at #7 Miami Hurricanes : Wake isn't exactly an appropriate warm-up for Florida State, but Miami will make the most of it.  MIAMI by 23

#8 Stanford Cardinal at Oregon State Beavers : Oregon State is knocking on the Top 25, winning impressively since losing to Eastern Washington, but that streak may stop here.  The Stanford defense can be stifling (just ask UCLA), and their offense is good, too.  The Beavers have a habit of engineering one upset at home each season, though, so don't dismiss their ability to win.  STANFORD by eight

Furman Paladins at #10 LSU Tigers : A late FBS v FCS game which LSU will use as a chance to reduce the sting of last week's loss.  LSU by lots

#18 Texas Tech Red Raiders at #13 Oklahoma Sooners : The Red Raiders may be getting Oklahoma at the right time.  The Sooners are still reeling from their loss to Texas; they did not play well this past week.  If the Raiders can engineer some quick scoring drives, Oklahoma may be dead.  Since they so rarely lose three games in a row, I will pick Oklahoma, but this game could end up going the other way.  OKLAHOMA by three

#15 Clemson Tigers at Maryland Terrapins : Clemson needs a good game to rebound from the atrocious loss to Florida State, and most people would think they will get it here.  Maryland is still a good team, though.  Recent history shows that, once Maryland starts their conference slide, they do not recover, but that does not mean they can't play Clemson tough.  Both teams were slaughtered by Florida State, so Maryland may believe that they have a chance to win.  This will be a close game, which could go to the home team, but I'll give Clemson a chance at redemption.  CLEMSON by six

Vanderbilt Commodores at #16 Texas A&M Aggies : Can Vandy to it two weeks in a row?  I don't think so.  Vandy can have these occassional fantastic games, but then most years they fall back to what is normal for them.  The key here may be the health of Johnny Manziel.  Twice now this year he has been hurt in a game (ankle earlier, shoulder this past week) and returned when it was clear that he was still hurting.  The first time he was able to bring his team back, this time he didn't.  However, if he keeps doing that he's going to hurt himself badly.  Didn't he learn anything by watching RGIII in the NFL playoffs last year?  If Manziel goes out, Vandy may have a chance.  I don't think their defense is tough enough to knock him out, though.  TEXAS A&M by 17

UConn Huskies at #20 UCF Golden Knights : The Golden Knights regain the Top 25 with their upset over Louisville and now they get a chance to enjoy it.  UConn hasn't won a game all season, so UCF will just roll.  UCF by 27

#21 Nebraska Cornhuskers at Minnesota Golden Gophers : Nebraska should win this game, thanks to a bye week, but Minnesota will give them a hard time.  Fortunately Nebraska knows that.  Northwestern was seem as a threat, so Minnesota victory over them showed Nebraska that they can't slack off.  That warning should be enough to prevent a letdown.  NEBRASKA by 13

#22 Oklahoma State Cowboys at Iowa State Cyclones : Iowa State has played well, but then can't sustain that in the fourth quarter.  Oklahoma State should be able to win this game, but it might be closer than they would like.  OKLAHOMA STATE by 11

#23 Fresno State Bulldogs at San Diego State Aztecs : San Diego State has quietly accumulated an unbeaten record in the Mountain West.  A win here by Fresno State gives them the inside track to win the West division.  San Diego State may push them early, but Fresno State will end up winning the game.  FRESNO STATE by 13

#24 Michigan State Spartans at Illinois Fighting Illini : I'm not sure if my love of my Alma Mater is affecting my judgement, but I think Michigan State is vulnerable here.  Their offense could only muster 14 points against Purdue, the worst team in the conference.  The Spartans have the toughest defense in the conference, so Illinois will struggle early, but I look at how they adjusted in the Wisconsin game.  Illinois scored 32 points against a decent Badgers defense.  If the Spartans offense cannot establish a large enough lead while the Illini struggle against the defense, Illinois might stage a great comeback.  I'll pick the Spartans, but they should watch out.  MICHIGAN STATE by six

Eastern Michigan Eagles at #25 Northern Illinois Huskies : The Eagles haven't won a MAC game, and I think that will continue.  The Huskies are ripe for a loss at some point, though, as they exposed the fact that their quarterback IS their offense -- take him out, and the Huskies can't score.  NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 23

Big Ten
Northwestern Wildcats at Iowa Hawkeyes : Northwestern finds themselves in a strange place.  They are a talented team who powerfully ran though their non-conference games, and have played well in their conference games, but have lost each of those.  They need a win here.  Iowa showed how tenacious they are, though.  Their defense is slightly better than Northwestern, and defenses can often shift the momentum of a game.  I think Iowa will win, but it'll be a close game that may depend upon who has the ball last and how that last drive goes.  IOWA by three

Other Games of Interest
Houston Cougars at Rutgers Scarlet Knights : Houston barely lost to BYU when their comeback fell short.  They have incentive to have a colossal game this week, and Rutgers will give them that chance.  HOUSTON by 23

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Virginia Cavaliers : Virginia has played tough in a couple of games, but they can't close them.  Georgia Tech is getting better each week, and I think that progression will continue here.  GEORGIA TECH by 16

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Air Force Falcons : Let's face it, Air Force is atrocious this year!  I called it in my preseason columns, but they're even worse than I thought.  Notre Dame will roll.  NOTRE DAME by 27

Florida Atlantic Owls at Auburn Tigers : Wow, nice gift to the Tigers.  They should have no problem here.  With possible losses to lower-tier Top 25 teams, Auburn could leap into the rankings.  AUBURN by 34

Texas Longhorns at TCU Horned Frogs : The cries for Mack Brown's job has covered up the fact that Texas is unbeaten in the Big XII.  They had a bye week to prepare for this game, and TCU is not playing well right now, so this should be a fairly easy victory for the Longhorns.  TEXAS by 20

GAME OF THE WEEK:  #19 South Carolina Gamecocks at #9 Missouri Tigers : Missouri has proven that they are a strong team.  However, there are still doubters.  They beat a banged-up Georgia team and beat Florida who was also missing some of their offensive starters.  Now they face a South Carolina team coming off a shocking loss.  If they win here, they solidify their status as the greatest threat to Alabama, who they won't meet until the SEC Championship Game.  If the Gamecocks lose by too much, they could fall right out of the rankings.  I think that's possible, as they seem a bit confused and off-kilter right now.  MISSOURI by 18