As I stated in my Top 25 column, it was a tough week to be a Top 25 team, especially unbeaten. Three formerly unbeaten teams lost: Stanford, Michigan in overtime, and Oklahoma in a Red River massacre. Others barely held on to their unbeaten status: Texas Tech against Iowa State, Houston over Memphis, Clemson over Boston College, Baylor over Kansas State, and Northern Illinois over Akron.
We are left with 14 unbeaten teams and 15 one-loss teams. We have reached the time of the season when rivalries games and conference match-ups cost many teams their status. Who will fall this week? I haven't picked many upsets, so I'm not expecting too many, but I'll identify some potential upsets.
Tues Oct 15
We're reached the point of the season when Tues games start getting thrown onto the schedule. It used to be a Big East trick, but with the dissolution of that conference, the Sun Belt has taken over.
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers : For those of you who do not track the Sun Belt, these are two of the top teams in the conference (Arkansas State being the other). The Ragin Cajuns are unbeaten in the conference, but I don't see that lasting past this game. Their rushing game is good, but the Hilltoppers have a pretty stout line. The Ragin Cajuns don't have a strong passing attack, so a one-sided offense will be easier to defend. WESTERN KENTUCKY by nine
Thurs Oct 17
#9 Miami Hurricanes at North Carolina Tar Heels : Miami looks to remain unbeaten against a struggling Tar Heels team. It shouldn't be that hard. North Carolina's lone victory this season has been against Middle Tennessee, and they lost to East Carolina by over 20 points. Look for a larger margin in this game. MIAMI by 30
Fri Oct 18
UCF Golden Knights at #5 Louisville Cardinals : UCF is a decent team, and they had an extra week to prepare for this game, but Teddy Bridgewater is a tough guy to defend. If he doesn't beat himself, this will be a long game for the Knights. LOUISVILLE by 21
Top 25
Arkansas Razorbacks at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide : The Razorbacks thought this might be a good year for them, until conference play started. They are yet to beat an SEC opponent, and I don't foresee that streak ending with this game. ALABAMA by lots
Washington State Cougars at #2 Oregon Ducks : Their "big brother" (as Hope Solo refers to Washington) couldn't keep pace with Oregon, so what hope do the Cougars? Slim to none. OREGON by 34
#3 Florida State Seminoles at #7 Clemson Tigers : I considered making this my Game of the Week, but instead picked a long-standing rivalry whose teams need a victory. This is the most highly-anticipated ACC game this season, and many consider it to be the REAL ACC Championship (Clemson and Florida State are in the same division, so they could not meet in the title game). Certainly the winner of this game has the inside track to win it all, and possibly go unbeaten. Clemson started the season hot, but QB Tahj Boyd has shown that a strong pass rush can rattle him. Tahj, say hello to the Seminoles pass rush. Florida State QB Jameis Winston has been posting some insane numbers himself, but the Seminoles strength is their defense, currently ranked third in the country, just like the team themselves. Since Clemson is home, they might pull off the upset, but I'm picking that strong Seminole defense to come through. FLORIDA STATE by eight
Iowa Hawkeyes at #4 Ohio State Buckeyes : The Buckeyes had a bye week last week to get themselves organized and straighten out some of the defensive kinks. That will just make them stronger. OHIO STATE by 21
#6 UCLA Bruins at #12 Stanford Cardinal : This is my first upset alert, although Clemson qualifies. Stanford lost last week, and they don't want to lose two in a row. However, I'm not sure Stanford coach David Shaw can stem the bleeding. After setting high QB marks early in the season, Stanford QB Kevin Hogan has struggled in the past two games. If he can't reverse that trend, UCLA should win easily. The pride of the Cardinal has been its defense, who couldn't stop Utah last week. I think the defense will shape up this week, which will make it harder for UCLA to win, and possibly signal the upset alert. UCLA by six
#8 LSU Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels : Okay, Ole Miss put up great numbers against Texas A&M. You have to remember that A&M is offensively-focussed; defense isn't their forte. LSU is a staunch defense, one that will frustrate QB Bo Wallace and the Ole Miss offensive line. Zach Mettenberger had a slow game last week, so he's inching for a chance to shine. He'll get it. LSU by 17
Iowa State Cyclones at #10 Baylor Bears : Iowa State almost beat one offensive powerhouse in Texas Tech. Can they actually do it to Baylor? Nah. Baylor QB Bryce Petty has quietly surpassed Oregon's Marcus Mariota and Louisville's Teddy Bridgewater for the highest QB rating in the country. Baylor has more weapons for the Cyclones to stop, and their defense isn't that deep. BAYLOR by 32
Auburn Tigers at #11 Texas A&M Aggies : Auburn has shown some muscle, and they've had an extra week to check out footage from Alabama and Ole Miss about how to beat the Aggies. The problem? Both of those teams have a better offense than Auburn, and you can't think of beating A&M without a dynamic offense. TEXAS A&M by 20
Indiana Hoosiers at #13 Michigan Wolverines : The Wolverines will bounce back, although Indiana has shown themselves to be a tough opponent. Still, I don't think the Hoosiers have a way to counter QB Devin Gardner, who is fast, making quick adjustments and running out of danger. MICHIGAN by eleven
#14 Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas Jayhawks : Oklahoma needs a strong victory to redeem themselves for the shocking loss to Texas. Pity Kansas, this is precisely the wrong time to face a determined Sooners squad. OKLAHOMA by 20
#15 South Carolina Gamecocks at Tennessee Volunteers : Clowney seems healthy, playing in nearly all of the defensive snaps last week. That gives the Gamecocks defense the power they needed, so they are prepared to surge through the rest of the SEC season. SOUTH CAROLINA by 18
Florida Gators at #16 Missouri Tigers : This one has upset potential written on it, as freshman Maty Mauk must replace injured James Franklin. Mauk did okay in relief last week, but he was simply nursing a lead. The best offensive play while Mauk was on the field was conducted by Bud Sasser, who threw a touchdown pass to L'Damien Washington. Mauk did throw a couple of good receptions, and brought the Tigers close enough for the final rushing touchdown. Can they perform as well against the stout Florida defense? I think the home crowd will help a bit, as will the Tigers defense, but this will be a hard-fought game. Personally, I don't think Florida is as good as the national press makes them out, so I actually like the Tigers' chances, although they may only eke out a victory here. MISSOURI by four
#17 Wisconsin Badgers at Illinois Fighting Illini : The Illini had an extra week to prepare, but can you REALLY prepare to face the Badgers? An advantage the Illini have is the lack of receiving weapons on the part of the Badgers, showing that they rely on running the ball. Unfortunately, the Illini defensive front isn't really strong. The Badgers will score, so the question becomes how well will Illinois' offense score against the Badgers defense? Illinois' offense is good, so expect them to score, but I'm not sure they'll score enough. WISCONSIN by eight
#18 Washington Huskies at Arizona State Sun Devils : Here's a potential upset alert. Arizona State is capable of scoring, and their red zone defense is tough. They could give Washington some problems. However, if Washington scores from a distance, the Sun Devils defense doesn't function as well spread out. WASHINGTON by eleven
#19 Georgia Bulldogs at Vanderbilt Commodores : Here's a rare game for Georgia -- a non-ranked opponent. Easy win. GEORGIA by 26
#20 Texas Tech Red Raiders at West Virginia Mountaineers : The Raiders should have an easier time remaining unbeaten this week, as West Virginia is struggling. TEXAS TECH by 24
TCU Horned Frogs at #22 Oklahoma State Cowboys : TCU is actually the Cowboys closest competition beneath them in the Big XII, so the Horned Frogs have some incentive to pull off the upset. I don't think they will. OKLAHOMA STATE by 17
UNLV Running Rebels at #23 Fresno State Bulldogs : Do I think UNLV will upset Fresno State? Let's put it simply - the Rebels barely beat winless Hawaii last week. FRESNO STATE by 23
Purdue Boilermakers at #24 Michigan State Spartans : The worst Big Ten team, and its weakest offense, comes into the toughest defense in the conference. This has the odor of a blowout, and a potential shutout. MICHIGAN STATE by 24
#25 Northern Illinois Huskies at Central Michigan Chippewas : I'd say there's not much of a chance of an upset, but the Huskies struggled against Akron, for crying out loud! The Chippewas have actually woken up since starting conference play, and they have some strengths. On paper, those strengths do not compare to Northern Illinois. Also, I think the Huskies will respond to the Akron scare with greater focus, winning this game handily. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 17
Big Ten
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Northwestern Wildcats : Here's a potential upset. The Gophers are a decent team, and they are coming off a bye week. Meanwhile, the Wildcats have to mentally contend with two consecutive conference losses, especially the complete blowout against Wisconsin last week. If they don't keep their head in the game, or Minnesota takes an early lead, the Gophers could win this thing. I'll still pick Northwestern, but not by much. NORTHWESTERN by nine
Other Games of Interest
Maryland Terrapins at Wake Forest Demon Deacons : After a blowout loss and a near loss, the Terrapins need a strong win to boost their confidence and continue to compete for an Atlantic division title. A struggling Wake Forest team is a great place. MARYLAND by 18
BYU Cougars at Houston Cougars : UPSET ALERT! The Cougars looked wimpy in their struggle against Memphis, and BYU has been improving each week. A Cougars team will definitely win this game, but which one is almost a coin toss. In close games, I usually go with defense, but since neither team is especially more capable in that area, I'll go with the home team. HOUSTON by four
Nevada Wolf Pack at Boise State Broncos : Nevada has an impressive 2-1 Mountain West record, but closer examination proves the record is inflated. Their two victories are against Air Force and Hawaii, the two worst teams in the conference. They did play San Diego State to overtime, but that has been their only impressive game of the season. They won't have another here. BOISE STATE by 17
Oregon State Beavers at Cal Golden Bears : Oregon State may be the only team to lose to an FCS team who can earn their way into the Top 25. With projected losses to Florida and UCF, and Houston and BYU beating each other up, the Beavers could launch to 26th position, ready to move in to the Top 25 if another team falters. OREGON STATE by 23
GAME OF THE WEEK: USC Trojans at Notre Dame Fighting Irish : This long-standing rivalry comes at a crucial junction point for each team. Both are 4-2 and wanting to get themselves back on track. USC is facing life with an interim coach, which makes this game more crucial for them. They've had an extra week to prepare, but so have the Irish. NOTRE DAME by 13
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