Sunday, November 4, 2012

NCAA 2012 Week 10 Top 25

There were upsets this week, but few affected the Top 25.  Only one team dropped, and the same teams remain in the Top Ten.  There is a wide power gap between the top ten teams and the rest.

Top 25 [Last week's position]
1.  Alabama Crimson Tide (9-0) [1] : LSU stuffed their passing game for nearly the whole game, but the Tide still engineered the game-winning drive.
2.  Oregon Ducks (9-0) [2] : They dismantled USC to quiet their critics.  If they don't play Alabama for the BCS title, there is something seriously wrong.
3.  Kansas State Wildcats (9-0) [3] : Good game, and a stiff competitor for Oregon, but they still have some tough games ahead.
4.  Ohio State Buckeyes (10-0) [6] : Urban Meyer may get his second unbeaten team, something he never achieved at Florida
5.  Florida State Seminoles (8-1) [5] : With so many tight games among the Top 25, the Seminoles timed their bye week well
6.  Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-0) [4] : It took them three overtime periods to beat Pitt?  Shame on them
7.  Georgia Bulldogs (8-1) [7] : The Dawgs continue to impress, and they can win the SEC East
8.  Florida Gators (8-1) [8] : A low-scoring offensively poor game against Missouri is how they finish their SEC conference play?  They don't deserve to win the SEC East
9.  LSU Tigers (7-2) [9] : They played 'Bama tough, but came up short
10. Clemson Tigers (8-1) [10]
11. Texas A&M Aggies (7-2) [14] : Impressive win against Mississippi State
12. South Carolina Gamecocks (7-2) [12]
13. Oklahoma Sooners (6-2) [13] : Solid win keeps them in contention for the Big XII title
14. UCLA Bruins (7-2) [19] : HUGE win this week.  Do you think they're preparing for USC?
15. USC Trojans (6-3) [11] : Offense looked good, but they only forced one punt from the Ducks. 
16. Oregon State Beavers (7-1) [18] : A clog of Pac-12 teams here.  Someone needs to break this logjam, and it might be UCLA
17. Northern Illinois Huskies (9-1) [21] : Big rise after one of their biggest victories in team history
18. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8-1) [22] : Still chasing Utah State in the WAC, but looking strong
19. Louisville Cardinals (9-0) [23] : They remain unbeaten.  Can it last?
20. Boise State Broncos (7-2) [15] : Upset by San Diego State, it will now be harder to win the Mountain West
21. Texas Longhorns (7-2) [24] : They knocked Tech down
22. Kent State Golden Flashes (8-1) [25] : The MAC East leader continues to march to the conference championship
23. Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-2) [16] : The Bulldogs' fortunes are falling.  Once they've hit the tough part of their schedule, they're folding
24. Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-3) [17] : They've lost any chance to win the conference
25. Utah State Aggies (8-2) [NR] : Both WAC challengers are in the Top 25.  That hasn't been so for a logn time

On the Edge:  UCF Golden Knights (7-2), Ohio Bobcats (8-1), Stanford Cardinal (7-2), Rutgers Scarlet Knights (7-1), Toledo Rockets (8-1), Tulsa Golden Hurricane (7-2), Fresno State Bulldogs (7-2), North Carolina Tar Heels (6-3), Michigan Wolverines (6-3), Penn State Nittany Lions (6-3), Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (6-3), Wisconsin Badgers (6-3)

Dropped: Arizona State Sun Devils [#20]

Big Ten Report
LEGENDS DIVISION
1.  Michigan Wolverines (6-3) : Consistent impressive games over the past few weeks
2.  Northwestern Wildcats (7-2) : They got to rest this week, which means they'll be stronger and hungrier next week
3.  Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-2) : They needed help from a poor call to prevent an upset by the Spartans
4.  Michigan State Spartans (5-5) : They're still dangerous, despite not being bowl eligible yet
5.  Iowa Hawkeyes (4-5) : They lost to Indiana.  I may have predicted it, but that doesn't help their standing
6.  Minnesota Golden Gophers (5-4) : Their defense needs work

LEADERS DIVISION
1.  Ohio State Buckeyes (10-0) : The only unbeaten team in the conference continues to prove why
2.  Penn State Nittany Lions (6-3) : This scrappy team has shown that they shouldn't have been written off this season.  Can you imagine how good they would have been if even HALF of the transfers had remained?
3.  Indiana Hoosiers (4-5) : An impressive win allowed them to leapfrog Wisconsin during their bye
4.  Wisconsin Badgers (6-3)
5.  Purdue Boilermakers (3-6)
6.  Illinois Fighting Illini (2-7) : They played Ohio State tough for a quarter, but couldn't hold them

Conference/Division races
ACC Atlantic:  It's a two-team race between Florida State and Clemson, and the Seminoles hold the tiebreaker.  If they beat Virginia Tech and Maryland, they capture the title.  Clemson would need to win both of their remaining games and hope the Seminoles get upset by the Cavs or Terrapins

ACC Coastal: Miami holds the lead, but they lost to North Carolina, who is right on their heels.  They still play Duke as well.  Miami could win out and lose the title if North Carolina also wins out.  The Tar Heels lost to Duke, but they don't play a team with a winning record for the rest of their schedule, so winning out (which seems likely) gives them the title.  Duke still has Miami to play, but may lose their shot at the title this week if they lose to Clemson

Big XII: Unbeaten Kansas State leads, and they beat runner-up Oklahoma.  If the Wildcats win out, they win.  They can even afford to lose one of their three remaining games, against TCU, Baylor, and Texas.  Oklahoma would need to win TWO more games than Kansas State, an unlikely scenario.  Texas has a dim chance; they'd have to win out and hope TCU or Baylor beats Kansas State.  They'd also need Oklahoma to lose two more games.

Big East: Louisville leads, but Rutgers is also unbeaten in conference play.  The Cardinals face Syracuse and UConn before they battle Rutgers.  While Syracuse has a slim chance at the title, a loss to Louisville would remove those.  This one may come down to the Rutgers v Louisville game at the end of the season.

Big Ten Legends:  Nebraska leads, and they have the tiebreaker over Michigan.  Nebraska has Penn State to face, but Michigan closes against Ohio State.  Northwestern has games against both Michigan and Michigan State, and both are on the road.  Nebraska stands the best chance to win this division.

Big Ten Leaders:  Wisconsin leads, but they face a surging Indiana team, then close against Penn State and Ohio State.  Indy also has Penn State, but close against weak Purdue.  This week's contest between Indy and Wisconsin could determine the winner.

Conference USA East:  UCF leads, and holds the tiebreaker over East Carolina.  Since the Golden Knights have two games against weak teams (UTEP and UAB), they could win the division even if they lose to Tulsa.  The Pirates need to win out (pretty easy, as only Marshall and Tulane remain) and hope UCF loses TWICE.  That seems unlikely.

Conference USA West:  Tulsa needs one more win to seal the title.

MAC East:  Kent State leads, but their three toughest conference games remain.  If they win out, they take the title, but that might be hard.  If Ohio beats Bowling Green this week, they set themselves up well to win.  A Bowling Green loss doesn't remove them from title contention, but it nearly does.  Miami Ohio has a slim chance, too.  Ohio seems to have the best chance right now.

MAC West:  This title will be determined by the Northern Illinois v Toledo game on Nov 14th.

Mountain West:  Boise's loss opens up this conference race.  Fresno lost to Boise but beat San Diego State.  They still face Nevada and Air Force, so they have a tough schedule.  The Aztecs beat Boise this week and have a victory over Nevada.  If they beat Air Force this week, they are likely to take the title, since they would only lose if Fresno wins out.  Boise actually has the best schedule remaining, with only Nevada as a possible stumbling block, but their loss to San Diego State now gives the Aztecs the advantage.  Air Force has a slim chance, but they'd need to win out, and they still face the toughest conference opponents.

Pac-12 North:  Oregon's win over USC almost guarantees the tile.  If they beat the Beavers, they win the division.

Pac-12 South:  USC lost the lead to the Bruins.  USC can snag the tiebreaker in two weeks, and the Bruins still have Stanford to face.  USC has the Sun Devils, though, so it isn't an easier for them.  If the Sun Devils beat them, USC would need to beat UCLA and hope Stanford beats the Bruins, too.  Basically, USC needs to win out to have a good chance to win the division.  No matter what, the key game is the LA rivalry.

SEC East:  Florida's SEC conference play is done.  If Georgia beats Auburn this week, they win the division.

SEC West:  Alabama has captured the first title of the season.

Sun Belt:  A three-way tie at the top, with two more teams close on their heels, makes this one way too complicated still to call.

WAC:  This week's contest between Louisiana Tech and Utah State will determine the winner

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