NCAA 2012 Week 13 picks

There were a few key upsets last week.  Most affected teams just outside the Top 25, but one struck firmly in the rankings -- Texas.  As Texas A&M has been building up a strong record against tough SEC opponents, even beating the Crimson Tide when they were Number One, I'll bet the Longhorns were happy that they dropped them as their traditional Thanksgiving Day opponent.  A struggling TCU team comes to town, and the Longhorns still get beat.  Not a single home team won on Thanksgiving; there were plenty of unthankful football fans that day.

The Big East was once again the source of upsets.  Louisville was knocked out of the Top 25 after their three overtime loss to UConn.  Rutgers was further distanced from the Top 25, and failed to secure the Big East title, by getting slaughtered by Pitt.  Mississippi State also further separated themselves from the Top 25 by losing Ole Miss.  Another state rivalry resulted in an upset, as pathetic Washington State redeemed their season by beating Washington in overtime.

With both FCS playoffs and conference championship games this weekend, there are too many special games to pick a Game of the Week.  I will also separate the FCS playoffs and conference championships from the other games.

Thurs night:  Louisville Cardinals at Rutgers Scarlet Knights:  Both teams lost coming into this de facto Big East championship game.  Louisville was most recently in the Top 25, and hasn't looked as bad in their recent losses.  Other than being the visiting team, they have all the advantages.  Yet, I'm going with Rutgers.  They are more tenacious, and they can win the title outright, with no "share of..." in front.  It'll be close, but I think the Knights will pull it out.  RUTGERS by three

Top 25
Texas Longhorns at #6 Kansas State Wildcats:  The Longhorns lost on Thanksgiving, so they are hungry for a win.  That might help motivate them.  However, the Wildcats lost before their bye week, so they've been stewing for two weeks by the time this game starts.  They want this one, and they want it badly.  They'll know that a shot at the BCS title game isn't possible, but that won't stop them from driving for a BCS bowl, which they won't likely get if they lose.  KANSAS STATE by eight

#14 Oklahoma Sooners at TCU Horned Frogs:  After tackling Texas, the Frogs get to host the Big XII runner-up.  Can they engineer a second upset in a row?  I'm not sure they're set up for that.  Texas thought they SHOULD win; Oklahoma is expecting a battle.  The Sooners have better players, and frankly are more disciplined.  The Sooners will prevail.  OKLAHOMA by 13

#16 Boise State Broncos at Nevada Wolf Pack: The Broncos need to win to capture the Mountain West crown, and have any chance at a BCS bowl (which looks unlikely now).  Nevada can be tricky, though.  This game will be closer than Boise State wants, and if the Nevada defense can get to QB Joe Southwick, they might win.  BOISE STATE by six

Other Games of Interest
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Baylor Bears:  The Big XII title is out of reach, but a win could secure a strong bowl bid and possibly get them back in the Top 25.  Baylor won't make it easy, though; this is a strong offense.  OKLAHOMA STATE by five

Nicholls State Colonels (FCS) at Oregon State Beavers:  This is a storm-delayed game from Week 2.  Since the Beavers play an FCS game, it won't make a difference in my ranking, so Oregon State remains outside the Top 25, unless both Texas and UCF lose.  OREGON STATE

Kansas Jayhawks at West Virginia Mountaineers:  The Mountaineers defense is weak, but so is Kansas' offense, so this is one team who the Mountaineers can stop.  Their offense will romp, so this will be a huge blowout.  WEST VIRGINIA by 32

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Arkansas State Red Wolves:  This is the de facto Sun Belt title game, as these two teams currently lead the conference.  Middle Tennessee has played better in conference play, but Arkansas State has been a power all season long.  This might be a close game, but I think the Red Wolves will win.  ARKANSAS STATE by six

FCS Playoffs
With the preliminary round out of the way, we get into a full slate of games.  I'll look at this not in order of game time, but in reverse order of rankings.

New Hampshire Wildcats at Wofford Terriers:  Both teams have been here before, with Wofford having won the championship more recently.  New Hampshire faced stiffer competition, but Wofford held South Carolina to only 24 points, so I like their defense.  WOFFORD by eight

Illinois State Redbirds at Appalachian State Mountaineers: The Redbirds had some close games in the Missouri Valley, but were tough non-conference.  Appalachian State started slowly but gained momentum as the season wore on.  I think that momentum will carry them through to the next level.  APPALACHIAN STATE by eleven

Cal Poly Mustangs at #6 Sam Houston State Bearkats:  Time for my first upset pick.  Sam Houston was a force in the Southland Conference, but was only mediocre outside of it.  Cal Poly had a couple of rough games, but they've mostly been a force too tough to overcome.  I think the Mustangs will dominate this game from the first quarter.  Sam Houston may match them in the second half, but the Mustangs will establish a lead too large to lose.  CAL POLY by 14

Central Arkansas Bears at #5 Georgia Southern Eagles:  Central Arkansas looks strong.  They dominated nearly all of their FCS opponents, and they have playoff experience (albeit not at this level).  Georgia Southern, however, is a powerhouse in the playoffs.  Even if their playing is off during the season, they seem to come together during the playoffs (kind of like the FCS' version of the New York Giants).  I have to favor the Eagles here.  GEORGIA SOUTHERN by nine

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at #4 Old Dominion Monarchs:  Old Dominion's basketball prowess extended to the football field this season.  The Monarchs were overpowering in the always tough Colonial Athletic Association Conference.  The Chanticleers were a force in the Big South, but non-conference opponents had their way with them.  I think the same will be said of the Monarchs.  OLD DOMINION by 16

Stony Brook Seawolves at #3 Montana State Bobcats:  Stony Brook has a good team, but Montana State was a monster this season.  Aside from their three-point loss to Eastern Washington and a seven-point decision over Southern Utah, this team cruised past their competition.  I don't think they'll have a problem until a likely rematch against Eastern Washington in two weeks.  MONTANA STATE by 15

Wagner Seahawks at #2 Eastern Washington Eagles:  Man, I'm torn.  Naturally I'd like to see the team who beat UAlbany progress far into the playoffs, reinforcing how well the Great Danes might have done.  However, any team that could beat Montana State is a team to take seriously.  It might be close, though.  EASTERN WASHINGTON by eight

South Dakota State Jackrabbits at #1 North Dakota State Bison:  These two faced off three weeks ago in the same locale.  The Bison squeezed out a three-point victory.  The Jackrabbits are looking for payback.  They've had much stronger performances since that game, and have confidence.  I think the Bison are a bit stronger, but the Jackrabbits will give them a scare.  NORTH DAKOTA STATE by four

FBS Conference Championships
I'll do these in chronological order, starting with the two on Friday night.

MAC Championship:  #15 Northern Illinois Huskies v #20 Kent State Golden Flashes:  It's been a few years since both MAC division leaders were ranked, and even longer when both came into the game with 11-1 records.  Truthfully, this one could go either way.  Northern Illinois has had an easier time, so they be the more likely favorite, but I think the closer games have strengthened Kent State's resolve.  I like them for the upset.  KENT STATE by four

PAC-12 Championship:  #18 UCLA Bruins at #12 Stanford Cardinal:  The Cardinal already beat them once in Palo Alto, and I think they'll do it again.  While some people think UCLA laid down in last week's game, so that they didn't have to face Oregon in the Pac-12 title game, I think Stanford has more talent and more offensive diversity.  The Cardinal should win the title fairly easily.  STANFORD by 12

Conference USA Championship:  #23 UCF Golden Knights v Tulsa Golden Hurricane:  No upset here.  Tulsa started the season strong but have faded recently.  UCF has certainly weathered their recent slate of tough games better than Tulsa did.  UCF by 13

SEC Championship:  #3 Alabama Crimson Tide v #5 Georgia Bulldogs:  The winner likely plays Notre Dame in the BCS National Championship.  Alabama has looked vulnerable recently, and Georgia seems to have fixed the errors that were glaringly exposed in the South Carolina game, but I still refuse to pick against Nick Saban in a title game.  ALABAMA by nine

ACC Championship:  #9 Florida State Seminoles v Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets:  Give me a break!  Georgia Tech is horribly overmatched here.  FLORIDA STATE by 23

BIG TEN Championship:  #19 Nebraska Cornhuskers v Wisconsin Badgers:  Wisconsin won the Leaders division by default, as both Ohio State and Penn State finished better.  Wisconsin has been horribly inconsistent, especially with their running game, which is usually their strong point.  Nebraska is a strong and steady team who should win their first Big Ten conference title. NEBRASKA by nine