NCAA 2012 Week 11 Top 25

Alabama fell!  The top of the chart and bottom shifted, but the upper middle remained stable.  With only three weeks left, it gets interesting.

Top 25 [Last week's position]
1.  Oregon Ducks (10-0) [2] : They started slow, but the offense exploded in the second half to capture the top position.
2.  Kansas State Wildcats (10-0) [3] : The Wildcats had a strong victory, but they couldn't move against a weak TCU defense.  Does that expose a weakness on the offense?
3.  Ohio State Buckeyes (10-0) [4] : Moving up in a bye week.  How great is that?
4.  Alabama Crimson Tide (9-1) [1] : They suffered their first loss, but they nearly came back to win.  Those defensive linemen need to watch where the line is.
5.  Florida State Seminoles (9-1) [5] : They are looking more like the ACC Champion
6.  Georgia Bulldogs (9-1) [7] : They captured the SEC East with a dominating victory
7.  Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-0) [6] : They didn't need overtime to win, but they still look lackluster
8.  Florida Gators (9-1) [8] : No SEC Championship, and likely no BCS bowl game, either
9.  LSU Tigers (8-2) [9] : A twenty-point win over Mississippi State may be their best win of the season
10. Clemson Tigers (9-1) [10] : They powered through a strong victory in preparation for their battle with Florida State
11. Texas A&M Aggies (8-2) [11] : They knocked 'Bama off the top, but won't make the SEC Championship Game
12. South Carolina Gamecocks (8-2) [12] : They let Arkansas score late in the fourth just to make them feel better.  Since they are out of the SEC race, they can afford to be generous
13. Oklahoma Sooners (7-2) [13] : The Sooners defense couldn't hold Baylor, but their offense could outscore them
14. UCLA Bruins (8-2) [14] : They led Washington State by a lot, but then let the Cougars run wild in the fourth quarter
15. USC Trojans (7-3) [15] : They slaughtered Arizona State to warm up for Notre Dame
16. Boise State Broncos (8-2) [20] : Trying to regain their footing in the Mountain West
17. Northern Illinois Huskies (9-1) [17]
18. Stanford Cardinal (8-2) [NR] : Stanford knocked off Oregon State and proved they still have power
19. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (9-1) [18] : They struggled to fight off Texas State
20. Texas Longhorns (8-2) [21]
21. Kent State Golden Flashes (9-1) [22]
22. Louisville Cardinals (9-1) [19] : The other unbeaten who fell this week, the Cardinals now have to chase Rutgers for the Big East title
23. Oregon State Beavers (7-2) [16] : Tough road loss as Stanford gave it to them
24. Wisconsin Badgers (7-3) [NR] : Huge dominating win, and terrific offensive performance, returns this team to the Top 25
25. Utah State Aggies (8-2) [25]

On the Edge:  UCF Golden Knights (8-2), Rutgers Scarlet Knights (8-1), San Jose State Spartans (8-2), Fresno State Bulldogs (8-3), Michigan Wolverines (7-3), Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (8-2), Ohio Bobcats (8-2), Nebraska Cornhuskers (8-2), BYU Cougars (6-4), Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-3), Toledo Rockets (8-2), Penn State Nittany Lions (6-4), North Carolina Tar Heels (6-4)

Dropped:  Mississippi State Bulldogs [#23], Texas Tech Red Raiders [#24]

Big Ten Report
This will be my last installment, as one division title is set.  I will discuss bowl eligibility in this segment.

LEGENDS Division
1.  Michigan Wolverines (7-3) : Although they have a lower record, they have been more impressive in recent games.  They are bowl eligible and will gain a bowl.  The Big Ten conference has many bowl commitments, and the probation of Ohio State and Penn State will allow every bowl eligible team to play.
2.  Nebraska Cornhuskers (8-2) : They don't win impressively, but they do find ways to win.  They are likely Rose Bowl bound, but Wisconsin could get in the way.
3.  Northwestern Wildcats (7-3) : Bowl bound, but they need to find consistency on offense
4.  Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-4) : Also bowl bound, they need to find consistency, PERIOD.  They seem to get amped up for tough opponents, so their best bowl matchup would be a team with a slightly better record.
5.  Michigan State Spartans (5-5) : They need another victory to be bowl bound.  With games against Northwestern and Minnesota, they may not get it.  Believe it or not, this week's home game against Northwestern, coming off a bye, may be their better change than their last game, a road challenge against Minnesota.
6.  Iowa Hawkeyes (4-6) : Like the Spartans, this team has been a disappointment this season.  Since Purdue upset them, one more loss takes away a bowl game, and they need to play against Michigan and Nebraska.  They'll be home for the post-season, and will finish the season in last place in the Legends division.

LEADERS Division
1.  Ohio State Buckeyes (10-0) : Although they could not win the division, they were clearly the best team
2.  Wisconsin Badgers (7-3) : Their dominant performance boosted them over Penn State, and sent them to the Big Ten Championship Game.
3.  Penn State Nittany Lions (6-4) : Their loss to Nebraska dropped them, and their probation takes away their postseason.  They need a strong end to the season to relieve some tensions.
4.  Purdue Boilermakers (4-6) : They upset Iowa to keep their bowl hopes alive (and basically dash Iowa's).  They conclude against Illinois and Indiana, so they could capture a bowl berth.
5.  Indiana Hoosiers (4-6) : They were destroyed by Wisconsin, as their defense was non-existent.  One more loss costs them a bowl berth, and they play Penn State this week.  No post-season for the Hoosiers.
6.  Illinois Fighting Illini (2-8) : Where, oh where has the offense gone?  They only managed a field goal against Minnesota.  They won't beat Northwestern, so their only hope for a conference win would be against Purdue this weekend.  Until Purdue upset Iowa, I thought the Illini had a chance.  Now...

Conference/division races
ACC Atlantic:  This title is between Florida State and Clemson, and the Seminoles hold the tiebreaker.  One win and the Seminoles go to the title game.  They play Maryland, so it seems likely they'll clinch it this week.

ACC Coastal:  Losses to Miami and North Carolina opens this division up again.  Virginia Tech is the only team clearly out of the race.  Miami controls their own destiny.  They already beat North Carolina and Georgia Tech, two other contenders.  Their final conference game is against Duke, yet another contender.  Virginia only stands a chance if both Miami and Georgia Tech lose their last conference game.  Ironically, both play Duke for that distinction.  Duke wins the division by beating both of those teams.

Big XII:  Kansas State needs one more victory to win the conference.  They play Baylor this week, and can clinch it by beating them.  They'd want to do that, as they close against tough Texas.  Oklahoma needs the Wildcats to lose both games, as does Texas.

Big East:  Louisville's loss puts Rutgers in the driver's seat.  If they win out, they take the conference title.  However, the Scarlet Knights still need to play both Cincy and Louisville, who are hot on their heels.  If Louisville wins out, they take the title, since they've already beaten Cincy.  Cincy needs to beat Rutgers and hope Rutgers beats Louisville.  Cincy also needs to win out, but with South Florida and UConn remaining, that seems likely.  Clearly this week's contest between Rutgers and Cincy determines Cincy's chances

Big Ten Legends:  Nebraska controls their own destiny, as they hold the tiebreaker over Michigan.  Worse, Michigan still needs to play Ohio State, so they are likely to finish with two conference losses.  Nebraska has Minnesota and Iowa remaining, so two wins seem likely.

Big Ten Leaders:  Wisconsin represents the division in the Big Ten Championship Game

Conference USA East:  UCF wins with one more victory.  That may not happen until they play UTEP, as they face Tulsa this week.  East Carolina needs UCF to lose BOTH games and the Pirates would need to win out.  UCF seems likely, but if Tulsa wins this week, we may need another week to determine the winner.

Conference USA West:  Tulsa has it won, so this week's battle against UCF could be a preview of the conference title game.

MAC East:  Ohio's loss removed them from contention, so it's between Bowling Green and Kent State.  They battle this week, so this game could decide the title.  If Kent State wins, they win the division.  If Bowling Green wins, they hold the tiebreaker, so winning to close the season would give them the title.

MAC West:  Ball State is out of contention.  This one is between Northern Illinois and Toledo, who play this week.  If the Huskies win, they capture the division.  If Toledo wins, and wins the following week, they get the division.

Mountain West:  This could end up a three-way race.  Boise State, San Diego State, and Fresno State each have one loss.  Each are 1-1 against the other two.  San Diego closes against Wyoming, which should be an easy win.  Fresno hosts Air Force in two weeks, and are likely to win.  Boise has two games to play.  If they win out, they will likely capture the title, as they will be highest ranked of the three (the next tiebreaker level).  If they lose to Nevada to end the season, though, Fresno would win the two-way battle between them and San Diego State.

Pac-12 North:  Oregon controls their own destiny.  If they win their last two games, they take the title.  It won't be easy, though.  They face Stanford this week and close with the Civil War against Oregon State, and they have to play in Corvallis.  A Stanford win this week would not only knock out Oregon from the unbeaten ranks, and possibly jeopardize their chances for the BCS title game, but also give them the tiebreaker edge.  If they then beat UCLA, they would capture the division, and likely have to face UCLA again in the Pac-12 Championship Game.  Stanford can also capture the title by beating Oregon and then the Beavers beating the Ducks in the Civil War.  Stanford's win over the Beavers this week removed Oregon State from contention.

Pac-12 South:  USC and UCLA are the only two who can take this title.  The winner of their bout this week wins the division.

SEC East:  Georgia captured that title

SEC West:  Alabama wins it if they beat Auburn in two weeks.  That seems likely.  A&M has a chance, since they upset 'Bama.  They need to beat Missouri in two weeks and hope Auburn can beat Alabama for their ONLY conference win of the season.  Not likely

Sun Belt:  The Ragin Cajuns have been pouring it on recently, but they need both Arkansas State and Middle Tennessee to lose out in order to win.  Since those two still play each other, the Cajuns have no chance.  The Warhakws need Arkansas State to lose both their games AND Middle Tennessee to lose their other two games AND to win out.  This seems unlikely.  No, it appears that the battle between Arkansas State and Middle Tennessee in two weeks will decide this conference.

WAC  Utah State has the advantage.  If they beat Louisiana Tech this week, they win the conference with a closing win against Idaho.  Tech needs to win out, against both Utah State and San Jose State.