NFL 2012 Week 10 picks

I've had big weeks for three weeks in a row, so I'm on a roll.  I am picking slightly less than half of the visiting teams, and several visiting teams won last week, so I'm not too bothered by my proportion.  There are many games that are likely to be close, and could go the other way, so this might end up being a tough week.

Thursday night:  Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars:  The home team has an edge on the Thursday night games this season, but Jacksonville is struggling so much, I can't favor them.  Andrew Luck is improving, and the Colts are again a force in the conference.  COLTS, 24-17

Sunday early games
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints:  Believe it or not, the Saints could threaten the Falcons unbeaten season.  After looking confused on offense to start the season, the Saints are starting to put things together.  Their defense still needs work, but that's been true for years.  Offensively, this team is getting dangerous again, and could give the Falcons difficulty.  I'll pick Atlanta, mainly because their first loss SHOULD be an upset, but watch out for New Orleans!  FALCONS, 28-23

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots:  This is NOT one of those close games.  The Pats offense is rolling, and the Bills are playing like they can't figure out what they want to do.  I'm not sure what they WANT either, but what they are GETTING are losses.  PATS, 34-23

Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers:  This is another of those potentially dangerous games.  When he is hot, Cam Newton is hard to beat.  However, I wonder if he can keep pace with a functioning Peyton Manning, and he is functioning.  I think Peyton will have a FOURTH consecutive game where he throws three touchdown passes, and I'll award Denver a rushing touchdown as well.  That seems to be too much for Cam Newton and the Panthers offense to overcome.  BRONCOS, 28-23

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings:  The Vikes have the better record, but they have not been playing well recently.  Detroit is improving, and they have the tools to be dangerous.  I'm going for the upset here, but the Vikings might use a divisional game as an opportunity to get it together.  LIONS, 23-20

New York Giants at Cincinnati Bengals:  The Giants have exposed some weaknesses, but I don't think the Bengals defense will be able to exploit them.  The Bengals have not been consistent, and the Giants defense is capable of (further) confusing them.  GIANTS, 27-17

Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens:  The Raiders will surge in the third quarter, but the Ravens will clamp down and solidify their lead in the fourth quarter.  RAVENS, 26-20

San Diego Chargers at Tampa Bay Bucs:  Here's another dangerously close game.  The Bucs defense will stymie the Chargers in the first half, but the Chargers will find traction in the second.  They will close the gap.  If this game goes into overtime, the momentum of the Chargers might give them a victory.  If their comeback starts earlier than I think, they can win in regulation.  However, I'll pick the Bucs, mainly because I think that defense will hold back the comeback long enough.  Also, the NFC has dominated in inter-conference play this season.  BUCS, 24-23

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins:  Jake Locker is likely to play, but he'll start cold.  The Dolphins will start hot, building on the numbers they were posting last week.  The Titans will attempt to engineer a fourth quarter comeback, but they'll come up short.  DOLPHINS, 23-16

Sunday late games
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles:  Both teams are struggling, so the question is who will play less poorly?  If the Eagles can reduce their turnovers, they should win.  I'm not sure they'll do that, though.  This game will change the lead, and a fourth quarter turnover in Eagles territory will allow the Cowboys to gain the winning score.  COWBOYS, 20-17

New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks:  The Jets offense is still taking heat, even during their bye week.  They'll take hits on the field this week, as the Seahawks defense will torment them.  We might see Tebow take some snaps, but that won't help them much.  SEAHAWKS, 23-16

St Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers:  This is one of the few one-sided games this week, as the 49ers defense will be fierce.  49ERS, 24-13

Sunday night:  Houston Texans at Chicago Bears:  The Bears are favored, but with this morning's announcement that Charles Tillman will not be playing, I wonder how long that will last.  Chicago cannot win without defensive help.  The Texans pass defense will rush and torment Cutler, knowing that is the way to throw him off.  That defensive front will make the running game difficult, despite successes by both Matt Forte and Michael Bush in recent weeks.  The Bears offense will sputter, so they will need turnovers or defensive stops that gives the offense a shorter field.  The Bears defense has been doing that, so I think the Bears could win.  If Tillman's absence reduces the defensive output, though, the Texans will win.  BEARS, 23-21

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:  Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers:  The Steelers are hot and the Chiefs are not.  This could be the most one-sided game of the week.  STEELERS, 26-13