NFL 2012 Week 11 picks

Some interesting matchups this week.  I pick more home teams, but there are several chances for the other team to win.

Thursday night:  Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills:  Ryan Tannehill has not been a consistent force for the Dolphins, but their offense is certainly better than the Bills.  Defensively the Dolphins have the advantage, too.  DOLPHINS, 24-16

Sunday early games
Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons:  They are no longer unbeaten, so the pressure is off.  Now the Falcons can focus on driving through to the playoffs, where hopefully they can win a game.  The Cards started well this season but have collapsed.  They are still capable of scoring points, but stopping Atlanta will be a challenge.  FALCONS, 23-16

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs:  The Chiefs surprised the Steelers last week, but I don't think they have two in a row in them.  Cincy has a good offense, although their defense is iffy.  Matt Cassel should have opportunities to move the ball, but Andy Dalton can move it better.  He proved that last week.  Consistency has been his problem, but his offense has re-committed themselves to winning out and gaining a playoff berth.  Given the collapse of the AFC East and AFC West also-rans (those trailing the division leader), that seems possible.  BENGALS, 27-21

Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys:  This will be a close game.  I'd like to pick the Browns, but they are too inconsistent to trust.  Besides, the offensive woes of the Giants could be the incentive Dallas needs to get themselves moving.  They slaughtered Philly last week and are only two games back from the Giants in the NFC East.  They have talent, if they can get coordinated and stop dropping passes and missing tackles.  COWBOYS, 23-20

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions:  The Bears loss puts Green Bay just one game behind the NFC North leader, and they beat the Bears earlier this season.  They have incentive to push forward.  Detroit is capable of moving the ball, and Green Bay's defense has been less than stellar this season, but I think the Pack will pull this one out.  PACKERS, 27-20

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans:  The worst offense in the league faces the best defense in the AFC.  This one is no contest, and likely the biggest margin of the week.  TEXANS, 27-10

New York Jets at St Louis Rams:  The Jets are now seriously talking about giving Tebow significant playing time, but it may be too late.  Besides, without much help from his receivers, he's going to be running it too often.  The Rams have better weapons, as they proved against the 49ers.  RAMS, 24-16

Sunday late games
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots:  Brady usually won these battles when Peyton led the Colts offense, but Peyton is in Denver (who Brady beat earlier this season).  With Luck at the helm, and getting quite comfortable against pro defenses, this could be an interesting game.  Luck still has a few things to learn, but a struggling and inconsistent Pats defense opens the door for the visiting Colts, on a five-game winning streak, to win. I'll pick the Pats, but that Colts win streak could continue.  PATRIOTS, 26-23

New Orleans Saints at Oakland Raiders:  I don't see them disappointing after their upset of Atlanta.  The Raiders have been giving up too many points, and the Saints offense seems to have worked out their early season kinks.  The porous Saints defense will allow the Raiders to score, but not enough. SAINTS, 30-23

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos:  San Diego is slipping, while Peyton has the Broncos winning.  The Broncos have a two-game lead in the division; after this game, they'll have a three-game lead.  BRONCOS, 26-23

Sunday night:  Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers:  The Ravens should win this game, but last week's ugly loss may inspire Pittsburgh to shape up and play right.  The Ravens are dangerous, but I'm going for the upset in this one.  STEELERS, 26-24

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:  Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers:  After last week's ugly loss, I'd love to pick the Bears.  If this game were on Sunday, I might.  However, the Bears often do poorly on Monday Night Football, and the 49ers also need an inspirational win after the embarrassing tie last week.  49ERS, 21-16