Wednesday, November 14, 2012

NCAA 2012 Week 12 picks

Upsets were prominent last week, the most prominent of which was Alabama's loss.  The upsets began on Tuesday and Wednesday, as two MAC division favorites, Toledo and Ohio, suffered losses.  Both played at home.  Alabama wasn't the only unbeaten unseated, as Syracuse rolled over Louisville. The ACC, who had remained fairly upset-free this season, saw a couple of them, as Miami fell to Virginia and Georgia Tech stunned North Carolina.  Purdue upset Iowa to gain their first conference win.  The SEC saw two marginal upsets, as Florida struggled against Louisiana-Lafayette and LSU tormented the Mississippi State Bulldogs.

Wednesday games
Ohio Bobcats at Ball State Cardinals:  Maybe the Bobcats will have better luck as a visitor.  They are no longer playing for the division title, but they are definitely playing for a good bowl bid.  So is Ball State.  Ohio has had more impressive victories this season, but they have been less impressive of late.  Ball State has the momentum, but home MAC teams didn't do so well last week.  I'll pick Ohio, but this one could go either way.  OHIO by four

Toledo Rockets at Northern Illinois Huskies:  This one is for the MAC West title.  Northern Illinois has the power, and had a bye week to prepare.  Toledo is working on a short week, and I think the Huskies offense will exhaust that defense by the fourth quarter.  NORTHERN ILLINOIS by thirteen

Thursday night:  North Carolina Tar Heels at Virginia Cavaliers:  Can the Cavs make it two in a row?  Will the Heels suffer consecutive losses?  Certainly the latter is possible, but the former seems unlikely.  The Tar Heels' massive offense will shred the Cavs defense.  NORTH CAROLINA by 20

Friday night: Hawaii Warriors at Air Force Falcons:  Hawaii is a joke in the Mountain West.  The Warriors haven't won a single conference game, and I don't think the Falcons will give them their first.  AIR FORCE by sixteen

Top 25
#18 Stanford Cardinal at #1 Oregon Ducks:  Uh oh, we could have the Number One team fall two weeks in a row!  Stanford can be tough, and their defense is fast enough to go after the high-powered Ducks offense.  Most importantly, they won't run out of steam like Cal did.  This game will be close, but I'll pick Oregon.  OREGON by eight

#2 Kansas State Wildcats at Baylor Bears:  Kansas State's defense already proved themselves against Texas Tech and TCU.  Baylor won't be any more successful, and the poor Baylor defense will let the Wildcats roll, even if Collin Klein needs to sit for a while.  KANSAS STATE by 24

#3 Ohio State Buckeyes at #24 Wisconsin Badgers:  Poor Wisconsin!  They win the Big Ten Leaders division, finally get back to the Top 25, and then they have to play the Buckeyes.  That was a short-lived Top 25 reign.  OHIO STATE by ten

Western Carolina Catamounts (FCS) at #4 Alabama Crimson Tide:  There are plenty of FCS v FBS games this week, surprising for so late in the season.  What's more interesting is that all of the FBS teams are in the SEC.  I guess they wanted easy games to close the season.  At least 'Bama doesn't have to worry about being upset this week!  ALABAMA by lots

#5 Florida State Seminoles at Maryland Terrapins:  The Seminoles clinch the ACC Atlantic division with this win.  They'll get it, although Maryland may play tough in the first half.  FLORIDA STATE by sixteen

Georgia Southern Eagles (FCS) at #6 Georgia Bulldogs:  Another easy FCS opponent for the SEC.  GEORGIA by over 30

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at #7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish:  The Irish will use Wake Forest as a warmup for their battle against USC.  Unfortunately the score won't be nearly as close.  NOTRE DAME by 20

Jacksonville State Gasmecocks (FCS) at #8 Florida Gators:  Florida already beat one Gamecocks team, and that was by 33 points.  This victory will likely be bigger.  FLORIDA by tons

Ole Miss Rebels at #9 LSU Tigers:  LSU stands no chance to gain the SEC West, but they know a strong bowl is in their future if they win out.  Ole Miss won't be that tough an obstacle.  LSU by sixteen

NC State Wolf Pack at #10 Clemson Tigers:  The Tigers are hoping for a Seminole loss.  By game time they'll know if they stand a chance at the ACC Championship Game.  Whether Florida State wins or loses, the Tigers should win this game, as NC State isn't that tough.  The margin may be close, though, as the Tigers won't have as much to play for.  CLEMSON by nine

San Houston State Bearkats (FCS) at #11 Texas A&M Aggies:  A nice easy opponent as reward for upsetting Alabama last week.  TEXAS A&M by a large margin

Wofford Terriers (FCS) at #12 South Carolina Gamecocks:  This is the final FCS v FBS to discuss (although Auburn also gets one), and it will be as large a wipeout as the others.  SOUTH CAROLINA by a bunch

#13 Oklahoma Sooners at West Virginia Mountaineers:  The Sooners defense will successfully limit the Mountaineers, and the lack of a defense by West Virginia will let Oklahoma light up the scoreboard.  OKLAHOMA by 21

Colorado State Rams at #16 Boise State Broncos:  Boise is still chasing the Mountain West title.  Colorado State isn't much of an obstacle, so Boise State can use the practice before facing Nevada next week.  BOISE STATE by 24

#25 Utah State Aggies at #19 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs:  This one is likely for the WAC title, especially if Utah State wins.  The Bulldogs have the better offense, but their defense has some holes for the Aggies to exploit.  Can the Aggies slow the Bulldogs enough to outscore them?  This will likely be a close game with a few lead changes.  I'll favor the home team, but watch out for an Aggie push in the fourth quarter.  LOUISIANA TECH by four

#21 Kent State Golden Flashes at Bowling Green Falcons:  The MAC East title is on the line!  Kent State has been dominant in conference play, but the Falcons can be tricky, especially at home.  They also have momentum coming into this game, having upset Ohio last week.  I'll pick Kent State, but watch out for an upset here!  KENT STATE by six

Cal Golden Bears at #23 Oregon State Beavers:  Cal played Oregon tough in the first half last week.  Can they play a full game against the Beavers?  The Beavers want to make up for their tight loss against Stanford.  I think the Beavers are more determined, but Cal will make it tough.  OREGON STATE by nine

Big Ten
Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan Wolverines:  A loss takes Iowa out of bowl eligibility, but Michigan is chasing Nebraska for the Big Ten Legends division title.  They showed last week that it doesn't matter who plays quarterback, that offense will still move.  MICHIGAN by 16

Northwestern Wildcats at Michigan State Spartans:  The Spartans can redeem their disappointing season, and become bowl eligible, with an upset win.  It's possible, but I think Northwestern is the more consistent and better structured team.  NORTHWESTERN by six

Indiana Hoosiers at Penn State Nittany Lions:  Indiana wants to become bowl eligible, but Penn State is playing for pride.  This win will guarantee a winning season, a confirmation of the strength of this team and the devotion of the players who did not leave school to play somewhere else.  PENN STATE by 18

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Nebraska Cornhuskers:  Since Nebraska holds the tiebreaker over Michigan, a win here seals the Big Ten Legends division for them.  They should get their chance to go to the Big Ten Championship Game, and possibly step into the Top 25.  NEBRASKA by 13

Purdue Boilermakers at Illinois Fighting Illini:  Before last week's upset over Iowa, I thought this might be Illinois' best chance for a conference win.  I think that's still the case, but the likelihood seems less.  At least Illinois' failure to win a conference game isn't as big news as Auburn's inability to do so.  PURDUE by four

Other Games of Interest
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Cincinnati Bearcats:  Rutgers wins the title by winning out, but Cincy and Louisville are breathing down their necks.  Rutgers certainly has shown to be the most stable of all of them; Cincy has sort of collapsed after their first loss.  Hosting Rutgers might force them to get their act together, but I'll still pick Rutgers.  RUTGERS by nine

UCF Golden Knights at Tulsa Golden Hurricane:  The Golden Knights find themselves in a similar situation as their Scarlet namesakes at Rutgers.  UCF can capture the Conference USA East title with a win, but they face the Conference USA West winner.  This will be a hard-fought close game which may come down to the last possession and the better kicker. I'll pick UCF, but watch out for Tulsa.  UCF by three

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oklahoma State Cowboys:  Tech has the offense, State has some defense, but State has some offense, too.  The better mix is why the Cowboys are my favorite.  OKLAHOMA STATE by eleven

BYU Cougars at San Jose State Spartans:  San Jose still has a remote chance at the WAC title.  BYU won't make a difference, but they do make an excellent practice squad.  SAN JOSE STATE by eight

FCS Game of the Week:  This is the final week of FCS play, as the playoffs start next week.  I'll pick all the playoff games and include them in the blog post.  For now, let's look at...
Eastern Illinois Panthers at Central Arkansas Bears:  The Ohio Valley leader faces the Southland co-leader in a battle for playoff position.  A loss actually takes Eastern Illinois out of the FCS playoff picture, despite the conference win, so they have more to play for.  Central Arkansas isn't used to this type of game, as this is their first successful year in FCS.  I like the Panthers, but this will be a close one.  EASTERN ILLINOIS by four

GAME OF THE WEEK: #15 USC Trojans at #14 UCLA Bruins:  Come on, you didn't think I'd forgotten this game, did you?  The battle for the Pac-12 South actually favors UCLA, although never discount USC.  Notre Dame is actually hoping for a USC win, as another Trojan loss reduces their strength of schedule and practically eliminates them from the BCS title game, unless Oregon loses.  USC will certainly play tough, but Matt Barkley has not been impressive recently, and the Bruins will pester him.  UCLA by six

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