NFL 2012 Week 13 picks

My picks of mostly visiting teams last week wasn't a bust, but it was my worst result in a month.  I might have let that color me a bit this week, as I was looking for reasons to pick home teams, so we'll see how that approach works.

Thursday night:  New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons:  This game could do either way, but the Falcons have done an excellent job this season of winning games, especially close ones.  The Saints will scrap hard, but I think Matty Ice and company will find some way to emerge victorious.  FALCONS, 30-26

Sunday early games
Arizona Cardinals at New York Jets:  Believe it or not, I think the Jets might win this game.  Okay, call me crazy.  This might be one of those games where I was looking for a reason for the home team to win, but Arizona has been a horribly inconsistent team this season, especially on the road.  The Cardinals have won only one game on the road this year, and I think that condition will remain.  The Jets are clear that they are playing for their coach now, as indications have come down that Rex Ryan may be on his way out.  That should inspire his defense to get to work.  JETS, 17-13

Carolina Panthers at Kansas City Chiefs:  Could Carolina win two in a row?  I think so, especially since the face the most offensively-challenged team in the league, even more so than the Jets.  The Panthers defense will let the Chiefs score more than they are used to, but Cam Newton and the offense will tear through their defense.  PANTHERS, 26-16

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans:  Houston has been faltering the past couple of weeks, but I think they'll find their footing this week.  Part of that comes from the fact that Tennessee hasn't won a divisional game, and the other is the fact that Houston got a chance to rest for nine days after ten days of five-quarter games.  TEXANS, 30-20

Indianapolis Colts at Detroit Lions:  The Colts are on a winning streak, and I think that'll continue.  They seem to avoid commanding victories, so this may be a close game, but Andrew Luck is getting more comfortable in his position, while Matt Stafford still seems a bit out of sync with his receivers.  COLTS, 27-24

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills:  Chad Henne is bringing the Jaguars back from the brink of collapse, but the Jags still need to prove that they can be a non-divisional team this season.  Henne will keep this game close, but I have to favor the Bills.  BILLS, 26-24

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers:  This may not be a blowout one-sided game, but the Pack always steps up for divisional games.  Moreover, the Vikings have stunk on the road this season.  All signs point to a Packers win, but winning by HOW MUCH is the question.  PACK, 27-20

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins:  The Patriots offense has exploded the past weeks, and I think that'll continue.  Games between these two are frequently offensive showcases, and I see no reason for that to change this week.  Ryan Tannehill is running the Dolphins offense well, but the Patriots are definitely on a massive roll.  PATS, 42-34

San Francisco 49ers at St Louis Rams:  I actually considered picking the Rams, since the last game between these two, in San Francisco, ended in a tie and the Rams have been doing well since that game.  However, the 49ers defense has toughened since that tie, and I think that squad will be the difference in this game.  49ERS, 24-17

Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears:  Cutler's return has reinvigorated the Bears. While Seattle can be tricky, they have been an atrocious road team this season.  They have turned the ball over twice as often on the road than at home, and turnovers have been the heartbeat of the Bears defense this season.  BEARS, 23-16

Sunday late games
Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers:  This game, more than any other this week, is really a "you pick" game.  Both teams are equally capable and equipped to win, so what do I use to base my pick? Home field advantage.  CHARGERS, 27-26

Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders:  The Browns haven't won a road game all season, but I think this one is it.  The Browns are moving up, while the Raiders still flounder.  I don't think they expect to get a wildcard spot (although 8-8 might be sufficient in the AFC), but they are definitely seeing how far they can go with the talent they have.  After some initial bumps and inconsistencies, Brandon Wheeden is gaining comfort in the NFL.  BROWNS, 26-20

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens:  Pitt seems to be stumbling, especially on offense.  The Ravens defense has lost a step, but should be able to handle the struggling Steelers.  RAVENS, 24-16

Tampa Bay Bucs at Denver Broncos:  The Bucs defense will make this a close game, and Josh Freeman and the Bucs offense will be able to score, but I think the Broncos will end up with a victory.  Unlike at Indy, Peyton has a running game to support his passing game, and the Broncos have not had to rely solely on Peyton.  That gives him the room to be aggressive, and that makes him dangerous.  BRONCOS, 26-23

Sunday night:  Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys:  Neither team is doing well right now, and we now enter December, which has frequently been a cruel month for Dallas.  However, the Eagles keep killing themselves, guilty of more turnovers than any team in the NFC.  That sort of carelessness could help Dallas achieve a rare December win.  COWBOYS, 24-20

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:  New York Giants at Washington Redskins:  For the second week in a row, the Giants are featured in prime time.  At this time of the year, prime time is the prime choice of the Giants, who seem to excel in the spotlight.  These two teams are fairly evenly matched on offense; the Giants defense will be the difference in this game.  The Giants will stress RGIII just enough to win, although this game will be a lot closer than the Giants fans would like.  GIANTS, 27-23