Sunday, November 18, 2012

NCAA 2012 Week 12 Top 25

After Alabama fell last week, both top teams lost this week, leaving only two unbeatens and some interesting questions for the BCS.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1.  Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-0) [7] : They have been the least impressive of the unbeatens (remember the 3 overtimes against Pitt?), but they remain the only BCS eligible unbeaten.  If they beat USC this week, they advance to the BCS National Championship.
2.  Ohio State Buckeyes (11-0) [3] : The toast of the Big Ten (which isn't such an honor this year) must be regretting their probation, but Urban Meyer has plenty of underclassmen on this squad, so I'm betting their stick around for a shot next year.
3.  Alabama Crimson Tide (10-1) [4] : Definitely the best one-loss team, the Tide have another shot at the BCS National Championship, especially if they beat Georgia in the SEC Championship
4.  Oregon Ducks (10-1) [1] : One foot from a second overtime and contention for the National Championship, the Ducks will now find themselves rooting for USC.
5.  Florida State Seminoles (10-1) [5] : The Seminoles still have a chance for a berth in the BCS National Championship, if Notre Dame loses to USC or either Alabama or Oregon lose again
6.  Georgia Bulldogs (10-1) [6] : The Bulldogs may have benefited the most from this weekend, as a win in the SEC Championship Game could propel them to the BCS National Championship Game
7.  Kansas State Wildcats (10-1) [2] : Their defense couldn't slow Baylor at all, suffering the worst loss by an unbeaten in recent weeks.  Getting back to the BCS title race will mean losses to Notre Dame, Oregon, and Florida State.
8.  Clemson Tigers (10-1) [10] : Clemson failed to the reach the ACC Championship Game, but a BCS at-large bid is possible
9.  Florida Gators (10-1) [8] : Less than stellar performance against an FCS also-ran
10. Texas A&M Aggies (9-2) [11] : The engineer of Alabama's loss is the best two-loss team
11. LSU (9-2) [9] : They almost lost to Ole Miss and have no shot at the SEC title game.  I'm sure they were expecting better.
12. UCLA Bruins [13] : They won their way into the Pac-12 title game and won the crosstown rivalry
13. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-2) [12] : Not an especially strong game against Wofford
14. Oklahoma Sooners (8-2) [14] : A one-point victory wasn't great, but it keeps them on track for a potential Big XII title
15. Stanford Cardinal (9-2) [18] : Stanford actually now leads their division, jeopardizing Oregon's chances for the BCS title game
16. Boise State Broncos (9-2) [16]
17. Northern Illinois Huskies (10-1) [17] : They are the only division leader or contender who avoided upsets the past two weeks
18. USC Trojans (7-4) [15] : They can redeem their season with an upset over Notre Dame
19. Utah State Aggies (9-2) [25] : They outplayed Louisiana Tech to capture the WAC title
20. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (9-2) [19] : Two WAC teams could finish the season in the Top 25, a minor miracle.
21. Oregon State Beavers (8-2) [23] : Strong win leading into the Civil War against Oregon
22. Texas Longhorns (8-2) [20] : The bye week hurt them, as other teams surpassed them
23. Kent State Golden Flashes (10-1) [21] : They beat Bowling Green to capture the MAC East title, but stronger wins by Oregon State and Utah State dropped them
24. Wisconsin Badgers (7-4) [24] : They forced Ohio State to overtime, so even a loss couldn't remove them from the Top 25
25. Louisville Cardinals (9-1) [22]

On the Edge:  Michigan Wolverines (8-3), Rutgers Scarlet Knights (9-1), San Jose State Spartans (9-2), Fresno State Bulldogs (8-3), Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-2), UCF Golden Knights (8-3), Tulsa Golden Hurricane (9-2), Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-3), Penn State Nittany Lions (7-4), North Carolina Tar Heels (7-4)

Conference/division races
Most of the races are set, but some are still interesting.  There are conferences without title games that won't be determined until after next week's games, so I'll provide one more recap next week

ACC Atltantic:  Florida State has won this division
ACC Coastal:  Since North Carolina is ineligible, this is between Georgia Tech and Miami.  If Miami beats Duke this week, they capture the title.  If Duke wins, the Yellow Jackets will likely win with a 6-6 record after losing to Georgia

Big XII:  Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Texas all have a chance.  If K State beats Texas, they win.  Oklahoma can win with a Texas victory and winning out against Oklahoma State and TCU.  Texas can win by winning out and watching a Sooner loss.

Big East:  This one will be decided next week when Rutgers and Louisville tangle

Big Ten Legends:  A Nebraska win earns them the title.  Michigan would need to beat Ohio State and hope Iowa beats the Cornhuskers
Big Ten Leaders:  Wisconsin won

Conference USA East:  UCF captures the title if they beat UAB.  East Carolina needs to win and hope the Blazers win.
Conference USA West:  Tulsa won this title

MAC:  The title contenders are set, as Kent State represents the East and Northern Illinois represents the West.  This is the first conference to decide its title game participants, as the SEC has delayed that decision

Mountain West:  This conference currently has a three-way tie where each team has a 1-1 record against the others.  If it finishes in a three-way tie, the higher BCS-ranked team wins, which right now would be Boise.  San Diego State has the best chance for a win, as they face Wyoming.  Fresno State hosts Air Force, which should be a win.  Boise State has the toughest game to finish, as they face Nevada.

Pac-12 North:  Stanford now could take the title.  They simply need to beat UCLA in what may be a preview of the Pac-12 title game.  If they lose and Oregon wins the Civil War, the Ducks go to the Pac-12 title game.  If both lose or both win, Stanford holds the tiebreaker.  However, the Oregon State Beavers still have a chance.  Since they beat Stanford, a Cardinal loss and a Beaver win in the Civil War escalates Oregon State to the Pac-12 Championship Game, as they would have the best record against the other two teams in a three-way tie.
Pac-12 South:  UCLA has won

SEC East:  Georgia won this title a couple of weeks ago
SEC West:  Alabama wins the title with a victory over struggling Auburn.  If the Tide loses and both LSU and Aggies win, it gets interesting.  A three-way tie might benefit A&M, who may be the highest ranked of the three.

Sun Belt:  Next week's game between Arkansas State and Middle Tennessee will decide the title.

WAC:  Utah State captured this title with their dramatic win over Louisiana Tech

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